Though there’s historically been a lot hype attached to giant opening weekends for movies, the past year or so has been a lesson in the importance of being leggy. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is the latest case study; with an opening weekend of $118.4 million (squarely in the box office blockbuster leagues, but middle of the pack for a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie) and a steep $250 million production budget, it was initially uncertain whether or not the closing chapter of James Gunn’s trilogy was going to break even during its theatrical run. But between an outstanding second weekend hold and strong performance overseas, the third “Guardians” movie has shot past the milestone of $500 million worldwide after just 10 days in theaters.
More specifically, Variety reports that “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” has grossed $528 million so far, comprised of $213 million in North American ticket sales and $315 million internationally. The overseas box office is led by China, where it has so far grossed $58.4 million (per Box Office Pro). It was difficult to predict how this film would perform in Chinese theaters, given that MCU movies have only recently started to secure releases in China again following a protracted absence. But the country has previously been a driving force behind the MCU’s record-breaking global box office totals (“Avengers: Endgame” grossed a staggering $632 million in China), and it looks like it could be again.
Come and get your love
Box office predictions are an inexact science, but this strong start for “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” does give us some solid ground to estimate where it could end up by the end of its theatrical run. The original “Guardians” movie had grossed $176.5 million domestically at this point in its release window, and “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” had grossed $248.4 million, so the third film is more or less halfway between those two. Respectively, the first two movies grossed $772.7 million and $863.7 million worldwide by the end of their runs, and they had a similar split between domestic and foreign totals to “Vol. 3.”
Mapping from that, the third “Guardians” movie is likely to clear $800 million by the time it leaves theaters, probably ending up somewhere in the $800-830 million range. That would be enough to carry it past the break-even point with a modest bit of profit.
It’s possible that “Vol. 3” could be buffeted below $800 million by the strong competition ahead (“Fast X,” “The Little Mermaid,” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”), but it’s not like the previous movies didn’t have competition of their own. The first “Guardians” movie was knocked off the top spot in its second weekend by the 2014 “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” movie (remember that?), though it did bounce back to No.1 a couple of weekends later, thanks to an otherwise quiet August release schedule. The second was knocked down to No. 2 in its third weekend by “Alien: Covenant,” managed to hold on to that ranking against “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales” in its fourth weekend, and then dropped to No. 4 the following weekend due to the double-whammy of “Wonder Woman” and “Captain Underpants.”
Are the dog days over?
Ultimately, it’s looking like “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” will be filed in the “success” column for Marvel Studios — but what does that mean for the wider Marvel Cinematic Universe? After years of “superhero fatigue” speculation being swiftly dampened by each new MCU box office record, those portents of doom have started to show signs of coming true over the past year.
Though “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” was buoyed by the return of “Spider-Man” director Sam Raimi and the promise of big multiversal cameos, other recent superhero sequels — “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” “Thor: Love and Thunder,” and “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” — have been consistently delivering lower box office totals than the previous movies in their respective franchises. Though it still has a way to go, it’s looking like “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” will continue this trend: grossing less than “Vol. 2” did in 2017, even before adjusting for inflation.
That’s with a significant advantage over other MCU releases, mind you. The “Guardians” films have all been relatively self-contained, with the gang of space misfits guest-starring in the Avengers’ adventures and the wider MCU rather than being integral to it. They’re technically part of a superhero mega-franchise but they have more space opera DNA than superhero movie DNA, and therefore are less impacted by superhero fatigue. Most importantly, they’ve had James Gunn at the helm delivering a strong, consistent, personal creative vision.
The next test for the MCU is Nia DaCosta’s “The Marvels,” releasing in November. Chief among that movie’s challenges: two of the main characters — Ms. Marvel and Monica Rambeau — were established in Disney+ TV shows, leaving casual MCU fans who haven’t watched those shows out of the loop (Monica appeared as a child in “Captain Marvel,” but she’s been through some major changes since then courtesy of “WandaVision”). Kang the Conqueror’s leap from “Loki” to “Quantumania” proved less successful than Marvel anticipated, and the studio might be regretting announcing “Avengers: The Kang Dynasty” as the next big team-up movie.
All this is to say that while it’s great for the Guardians to go out on a high note, the future of the MCU still hangs in the balance.
source: slashfilm.com
